dividend and portolio update Nov 2018


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Dividend by month

1) singtel
2) fcot sgx  starhillg fct sphreit cmt fortune capitaretail capitacom mit suntec
3) spost  taisin  nam lee
5) fcot steng sgx  uob sph starhillg fct sphreit cmt cdg hcg Singre teckwah mit sci suntec bumi hlf ums
6) tcil ocbc
7) singpost ums
8) fcot singtel  plife  suntec ocbc  starhillg sci steng fct singpost sphreit cmt ock fortune  capitacom  siaen mit sats uob cdg sci
9)   hlf teckwah bumi singre capitaretail
10) sgx ums tcil
11) fcot taisin sgx spost  starhillg fct cmt siaen mit suntec
12) sph ksh ock sats netlink ums

Remarks:

Taisin

recent quarter earning 0.31c. been watching this counter more closely after the boss decided to cut the final dividend slightly 1.6 to 1.5c. sure, its not a big amount. but any decision to cut dividends must not be taken lightly. especially when we talking about a 100-200m cap counter, with little hard physical asset backing, the only main reason for the share price is the earnings and dividend yield. without these, there actually no reason why it should trade near 40c. with this kind of earnings, it is possible that the full year earnings could be in the region of 1-2c, unless the next few quarters produce some spectacular results, which i remain skeptical of. if this hypothesis is right, we could see the dividends being cut by half. high nav for this sort of counter is not useful and doesnt really support the price much. imo it should fall below 30c unless some spectacular quarters appear subsequently.

First Reit and Lippo

pondered upon these two counters thoroughly. both are related to the same owners. thus problems with the owner would affect these. It seem that there could be some cash flow and credit issues. And i am increasingly cognizant of the effects of the depreciating ruppiah on these counters. First reit, it won’t be possible for it to maintain an increasing dps. Even though we talk about healthcare as being very resilent even in market crashes. But credit risk and depreciating currencies make will be increasingly harder and moving on, will reach a point where its just impossible to maintain dps. Lippo is not dissimilar. we can see drastic cuts in the dividends in the preceding quarters already. i have underestimated the forex risks and should have bailed out in the 30c plus levels. Though these two counters collectively constitutes only 6% of my portfolio, i doubt the ruppiah depreciation won’t continue, and once the integrity of the credit of owners are in question, and one of the days the banks happen to be weak, switching the funds to the bank stocks isn’t too difficult a decision.

Sold off majority of taisin, all of first reit and all of lippo. these 3 counters collectively constitutes about 8% of my portfolio.

With the proceeds, i have added all three banks and Keppel corp.

Added more sia and sats using my dividends.

Overall,

nothing fanciful and nothing new: dividends received will be used to reinvest in the same counters and/or the counters which are about to pay dividends soon.

No further input is necessary. Portfolio creates the income every month and gets reinvested. One reinvestment move means one more continuous stream of income in the future.

Counters get rebalanced periodically as and when the opportunities arise.

Market up or down doesn’t matter too much, in fact is not a bad thing after all. Dividends provided new cash flow as compounding and dollar cost average tool.

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