Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jun 19, 2019)

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FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Jun 18), but were net sellers on Mon. and Wed. (Jun 17 and 19). Their total net selling was worth about Rs 4 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Wed., but were net buyers on Mon. and Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 13.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, India’s non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) have a record Rs 1.1 Trillion of local currency bonds due next quarter. Refinancing the obligations may pose a challenge.

India recorded FDI inflow of US $61 Billion during FY 2017-18 against $60.2 Billion in FY 2016-17, according to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Note the following comments from last week’s technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: Charts don’t ‘like’ unfilled gaps. Most gaps get filled sooner than later – though some gaps may never get filled. A part or complete filling of the May 20 ‘gap’ will make the chart technically ‘healthy’, enabling the index to rise higher.”

Nifty had formed a 165 points upward ‘gap’ on May 20, and rose to touch a lifetime high of 12103 on Jun 3. It has since corrected all the way down towards the ‘gap’. 

The 50 day EMA has provided good support this week. The index continues to trade well above its rising 200 day EMA in a bull market.

A part or complete filling of the ‘gap’, followed by a resumption of the bull rally is the more likely Nifty direction. However, a remote bearish possibility should also be kept in mind: If Nifty forms a downward ‘gap’ and falls below the May 20 upward ‘gap’, a bearish ‘island reversal’ pattern will get formed.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. (Note that the signal line has formed a bearish ’rounding top’ pattern.) RSI is moving sideways below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen inside its oversold zone, and can trigger an index pullback towards the 20 day EMA

Nifty’s TTM P/E has moved down to 28.91, but remains in overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has re-entered its oversold zone, hinting at some near-term index upside.

A delayed monsoon is adding to the growth woes of the economy. Some out-of-the box thinking and reform measures are required to push the economy back onto the growth track. But it may be better to have moderate expectations from the current regime.

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