Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 13, 2019)

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FIIs were on a buying spree on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying in equity was worth a massive Rs 90.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 44.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 1.7% in Jan ’19 from 2.6% in Dec ’18 due to deceleration in manufacturing, capital goods, consumer, non-durables and electricity sectors.  

Retail (CPI) inflation rose to 2.57% in Feb ’19 from 1.97% in Jan ’19 due to higher food prices (except vegetables). Lower IIP and higher CPI may force RBI to cut interest rates in its Apr ’19 policy meeting.

The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has shot up like a rocket – fuelled by renewed FII buying. Announcement of dates of general elections, and likely return of NDA for a second term (as per recent polls) has given a big boost to bullish sentiment.

Note that the index has closed above the upper Bollinger Band two days in a row, and also formed a ‘hanging man’ candlestick today. The two together may be a warning of a potential downward reversal.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish, and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI has entered its overbought zone for the first time since Aug ’18. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside its overbought zone, and can trigger a correction.

Remember that an index (or stock) can remain overbought for long periods. That doesn’t mean one should throw caution to the winds. The index is just 400 points away from its lifetime high. Charts tend to have ‘memory’. Profit booking can emerge as the index approaches 11760.

Nifty’s TTM P/E has moved up to 27.80, which is way higher than its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has emerged from its overbought zone, and can limit near-term index upside.

Polls have often proved incorrect – probably because of insufficient sample sizes among a heterogenous population. So, they should always be taken with a pinch of salt. 

The stock market – and specifically, FIIs – seem certain of a win for NDA. But there have been many a slip between the cup and the lip. NDA was supposed to be a shoo-in in 2004.

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